Downgrade: Synaptics Dilutes Auto/DC Narrative That's Driven Stock Up 2x YTD

Research evidence excerpt

Downgrade: Synaptics Dilutes Auto/DC Narrative That's Driven Stock Up 2x YTD

DAQ: ON

Beta: 1.97 Accretion Seem Limited At First Glance: The deal rationale outlines $200M in annual

52-Week Range: $133.93-$44.90 synergies within 18 months post-close, predominantly weighted in OpEx. While there may

Market Cap: $46.5B be plenty of OpEx to cut, we would prefer to see structural value capture through clear

Net Debt (MM): $840.7 manufacturing synergies achieved by bringing Synaptics' product portfolio under onsemi's

footprint (65nm+) to drive GM% expansion through improved utilization. This very well could

Cash/Share: $3.00

happen over time, but does not appear to be a near-term priority. Further, while the product

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 394.1

Enterprise Value portfolios have little overlap and are framed to be complementary, management commentary

$47,655.2

(MM): was light on revenue synergy targets beyond a cross-selling opportunity to tackle more

BV/Share: $18.63 sockets; having more shots on goal with a larger portfolio is certainly beneficial, but difficult to

Dividend: $0.00 give credit to from a modeling standpoint, in our view.

Yield: 0.0%

onsemi Still Has Work To Do On Its Organic Margin Story: Deal benefits will take time, and

near-term we do worry that onsemi's recovery still has headwinds from inventory (levels are

FY 2025A 2026E 2027E

(Dec) above peers at 201 days on the balance sheet, with 75 days of bridge), and business exits

EPS that are dampening growth. onsemi's gross margin profile requires a step-up in volumes for

underloading charges to abate and get back to prior levels. While there are reports of ASP

Q1 $0.63 $0.73A $0.98

increases across the space, we also note that onsemi's power discrete portfolio (50% of sales)

Q2 $0.62 $0.79 $1.05