INVITE—U.S. Government Stakes in Practice: D-Wave & Rigetti Computing

Research evidence excerpt

INVITE—U.S. Government Stakes in Practice: D-Wave & Rigetti Computing

Washington Strategy

June 24, 2026

Company Valuation/Risks

D-Wave Quantum Inc

Price Target of $45 implies 80x our CY30 revenue of $432M discounted back.

Risks:

Uncertain path to mainstream adoption: Quantum computing remains formative, and the timeline to broad commercial use is unclear. A protracted•

adoption curve could push out industry cash flows, compress valuation multiples, and delay investor returns across the sector.

Scale disadvantage versus hyperscalers: Large tech platforms, such as IBM, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, are investing heavily with access to•

significant capital, talent, and global cloud distribution. These incumbents could set de-facto standards and outpace or crowd out specialized

vendors such as D-Wave as the market matures.

Pilot-to-production conversion risk: D-Wave’s current revenue is concentrated in a small set of enterprise and government pilots. The growth•

trajectory hinges on converting pilots into recurring, production-grade QCaaS contracts with formal SLAs. Slippage or low conversion rates would

materially weaken revenue visibility and extend the path to profitability.

Gate-model execution risk: D-Wave’s long-term plan includes developing and commercializing gate-model systems. Technical, manufacturing, or•

schedule setbacks in gate-model R&D could limit competitiveness versus gate-based peers, constrain market capture beyond annealing, and slow

revenue diversification.

Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Price Target of $20 implies 65x our CY30 revenue of $207M discounted back.

Adoption timing & revenue concentration: Near-term revenue remains very small and is heavily skewed to U.S./U.K. government research, making•

results sensitive to award cycles and appropriations.