1Q Preview: Quarter end acceleration

Research evidence excerpt

1Q Preview: Quarter end acceleration

V Average premium/(discount) - longterm

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies estimates

launch likely at Qtr end will mostly come in 2Q pre-sales.

Prestige's pre-sales to be down by ~35% YoY on a high base (NCR-Indirapuram).•

However, pre-sales likely to be ~Rs70-80bn driven by the launch of Golden Grove

Hyderabad project and sustenance from 4Q launches in Bangalore. Co. is set to receive

approvals for Mulund, MMR and Palm Court, Chennai proj. in last week June/early July

creating some uncertainity. Large launches (MMR, NCR) likely from late 2Q/early 3Q.

Oberoi has received the RERA approval for its landmark ~Rs100bn Gurgaon Three Sixty•

North project in late June. We partly build-in sales from that project in our 1Q ests of

Rs25bn, +50% YoY. Ex-Gurgaon, pre-sales likely to be down ~25% YoY, given no new MMR

launches.

Lodha likely to see 5-10% YoY pre-sales growth to Rs48-50bn, implying sales tad below•

the ~17% pre-sales guidance. Pre-sales supported by 4Q launches in Mumbai (Worli,

Sewri). Datacenter land transaction remains awaited for 2Q.

DLF sales should be shaply lower (-85% YoY) on a high base (Privana) vs. no new launch•

in 1Q. Pre-sales driven by steady sales at Dahlias project. Launch of Arbor Sr. Living and

Mumbai Ph-2 expected in 2Q.

Sobha's sales may rise ~20% YoY to ~Rs23-25bn, with sales driven by new launches•

in NCR (Gurgaon, GNOIDA). The large ~Rs50bn GDV Bangalore (Hoskote) project also

launched at qtr end.

Guidances should be met. Larger ticket launches got pushed out due to the sentiment

impact of the Middle East conflict; however recent launch activity revival should drive better

momentum in pre-sales for our coverage from 2Q onwards. Combined with market share