Oil markets Gulf barrels return; ‘mini-glut’ emerges amid deficit

Research evidence excerpt

Oil markets Gulf barrels return; ‘mini-glut’ emerges amid deficit

26 June 2026

Oil markets EquitiesGlobal & Commodities

Gulf barrels return; ‘mini-glut’ emerges amid deficit

◆ Hormuz reopening creates near-term supply overhang; Gulf Kim Fustier*

exports rebound faster than market can absorb them Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

◆ China remains key swing buyer, but June imports down vs +44 20 3359 2136

May; some demand reduction looks permanent Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

◆ Next inflection point when backlog of stranded vessels runs ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

out and SPR releases end in July +44 20 7992 3302

Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is translating into a near-term supply HSBC Bank plc

overhang of Middle East oil, even as underlying 3Q balances still look tight. Based sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

+44 207 9910569

on Rystad’s Hormuz traffic data, we estimate Gulf exports have risen from <2mbd in

Evan Li*

May to over 9mbd on average in the last few days. In the very near term, theoretical Head, Asia Energy Transition Research

supply & demand deficits don’t matter: the rate of change in supply (as stranded Gulf The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

barrels are released) is outpacing the rate of change in demand, which cannot adjust +852 2996 6619

quickly via incremental demand, higher refinery runs or inventory restocking. Lilyanna Yang, CFA

Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, Petrochems

The physical market is responding accordingly. Since the reopening, some crude HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com

benchmarks have moved to discounts versus Brent. The forward curve has flattened +1 212 525 0990