Better risk-reward – back to BUY

Research evidence excerpt

Better risk-reward – back to BUY

Yara

Q2'26 expectations

Yara publishes detailed material ahead of its quarterly reports to support analysts' modelling.

Yara's actual results have on average been USD 68m (USD 37m in Q1'26) better than

indicated in the pre-quarter material.

The Q2'26 material indicated EBITDA of USD 1,277m using a volume-neutral outside-in

model. In addition to the price impact, analysts should assess the impact of a potential weak

or strong price realisation, third-party distribution margins, phosphate upgrading margins or

other mix effects, deliveries and the impact of the ongoing cost reduction programme.

Volumes: Yara warned of weaker volumes in the pre-quarter material. A planned

maintenance stop at Belle Plaine and an unplanned outage at Pilbara (Australia) and

Ferrara (Italy) will likely have a negative impact of USD 100-150m, according to the material.

In addition, the price volatility and higher prices reduced demand in markets in the off-

season (e.g. Latin America, where Yara has large presences). Finally, the European

industry saw pre-buying early in the season to adjust to any price implication from the

implementation of CBAM. Volumes surprised positively in Q1, suggesting that Q2 could

potentially disappoint given the high prices.

We put the expected headwind from volumes in the high end of the aforementioned interval

at USD 150m for Q2'26.

Underlying volumes have improved since the trough in Q1'23. Core deliveries in the last 12

months were 19.28mt, which compares to 16.35mt at the trough in Q1'23. Yara has regained

some of the lost volumes from the pre-Ukraine war period. However, we still think Yara is

earning less than it should when these volumes are regained. (see discussion below)