BKG: Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

BKG: Model Update

Berkeley maintained the FY27-30 PBT guidance of >£1.4bn, which may Prev. 3,788.31 3,943.04 3,939.31 P/TBVPS 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x be slightly more weighted toward FY27. We forecast £383m, £336m, DPS 0.00 50.00 50.00 50.00

£337m and £369m across FY27-30 respectively for a cumulative £1.42bn. Prev. 90.00 100.00 120.00

Management expect FY27 ASPs to be 'close to FY25' (i.e. undoing negative Div Yield 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

mix effects from FY26), while volumes will be lower - reflecting the declines

in forward sales (-28% YoY). We forecast volumes to be 14% lower in FY27 Revenue: £m

(VA cons. -15% YoY). EPS,TBVPS:AdjGBpBasic: GBp

Adj Op Profit (M): £m

Shareholder returns strategy held DPS:All marketGBp data in GBp; all financial data in GBP; dividends paid in GBp.

Berkeley reiterated that their strategy in the near term will focus more Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

on cash generation and shareholder returns, rather than chasing short-

term profits. £112m of the £640m returns between September 2026 and

September 2030 have been spent - we forecast ~£674m, broadly split

as 2/3rds buyback, 1/3rd dividend. We have upped our expectation of

buybacks vs dividends, given the lower recent share price, and higher-than

expected buyback with FY26 results illustrating management's preference

for buybacks over dividends.

Changes to our estimates

We update our estimates to account for FY26 results, and make minor edits

to our FY27-FY28 estimates (-2% to FY27 PBT, +1% to FY28 PBT). We assign

more weight to buybacks vs dividends as part of Berkeley's near-term

£640m shareholder returns strategy, which results in our TBVPs estimates

rising 4% in FY27e and 7% in FY28e. We roll forward our valuation year