North America Metals & Mining Sunday Morning Metals: Natural Resources Conference Takeaways; CMC F3Q Results

Research evidence excerpt

North America Metals & Mining Sunday Morning Metals: Natural Resources Conference Takeaways; CMC F3Q Results

capacity to ~1.3Mtpa against a

~10Mtpa market.

CATL mine restart rumors hit lithium futures market, according to Bloomberg on June 22

(link). GFEX fell on unconfirmed speculation that CATL's Jianxiawo mine may restart

following the June 18 renewal of its land pre-approval and site selection permits; the Sep-26

contract is down 12% to $22.1/kg LCE since, as investors position for a possible 2H26 reopening

despite no confirmed resumption plan. Our thoughts: This permitting update does move the

project incrementally closer to a restart, but we expect additional regulatory and procedural

steps ahead, which should limit the pace at which supply can return. Moreover, even if operations

restart (which could pressure futures/spot sentiment initially), it would likely take months before

meaningful volumes reach the broader market and impact the supply-demand balance. We

would not expect near-term shortages to ease immediately. We note Benchmark Minerals

expects a 3Q26 Jianxiawo restart, with material accumulating in 2027.

Energy Fuels agrees to acquire German magnet maker VAC in a $1.9B deal, according to

a June 23 company release (link). The cash-and-stock transaction is positioned to make Energy

Fuels one of the largest non-China producers of rare earth permanent magnets, with VAC

contributing an established magnetics franchise (100+ years, 400+ patents, 1K+ customers) and

its Sumter, SC permanent magnet facility at ~2ktpa (scalable to ~12ktpa). The transaction is

expected to close in early 2027 pending regulatory approvals. Our thoughts: The announcement

underscores accelerating consolidation in the rare earths space given the push toward vertically