European Insurance: Weekly Cover

Research evidence excerpt

European Insurance: Weekly Cover

Barclays | European Insurance

inflation is seen at 3.8% in 2026 (vs 5.4% before), accelerating to 4.7% in 2027, and entirely

driven by severity, as frequency should remain broadly stable. These forecasts do not embed

any impact from market consolidation nor changes in reserve releases and reinsurance

pricing.

• Norwegian VAT proposal: Norway's government appointed tax commission delivered a

report to the Ministry of Finance on 24 June 2026 recommending investigating VAT on non-life

insurance as a direct replacement for the finansskatten (a sector-specific tax on financial and

insurance companies). The proposed VAT would be calculated as premiums received less

claims paid and at the same time insurers would be able to recover input VAT. The key effect

is asymmetric by customer type: private policyholders, who cannot recover VAT, would face

premium increases while commercial customers would be less impacted. This remains a

commission recommendation requiring legislative actions. The Ministry of Finance will now

review the proposal and decide whether to amend it or not and eventually present it to the

Parliament as an official proposal next year to be then implemented, if approved by the

Parliament, in 2028. Key stocks in focus: GJF, Tryg and Sampo.

• Hong Kong insurance flows: Constructive comments from HK Financial Secretary Paul Chan

Mo-po in several newspaper interviews late last week / over the weekend. Hong Kong is

discussing with the Chinese authorities to allow more HK market access for mainland

investors. Plans include letting mainland retail investors subscribe to Hong Kong IPOs,

lowering entry thresholds for qualified investors, as well as broadening cross-border

investment channels for Shanghai’s tech-focused Star Market.