Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

Research evidence excerpt

Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech Sector :

"Implications of Cox Automotive’s US market review"

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Segment mix worsening as new-vehicle affordability declines

Cox Automotive has released its CY26 mid-year review. Noting that income growth has

not kept pace with rising vehicle ownership costs driven by inflation and tariffs, the

company concludes that new-vehicle affordability continues to decline. The review also

points out that the positive wealth effect from rising equity markets and other asset

gains is concentrated among only a very limited number of segments and customers. In

the context of a K-shaped US economy, we have a Buy rating on Toyota, which could

capture demand in the higher-end segments of the new-car market. In contrast, we

have Sell ratings on Subaru and Nissan because the profit contribution from the US is

substantial and we expect them to be negatively impacted by the decline in new-vehicle

affordability.

Big differences between companies

Within the major mid-size SUV segment, the gap between the base Manufacturer’s

Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) and average MSRP (Figure 1) is $6,000-$10,000 (20-

30%), indicating that most consumers are not purchasing base models. Differences

across models are also substantial. While the spread in base MSRP across models is about

$3,000, the spread in the average MSRP widens by 50% to about $5,000. Furthermore,

no clear correlation is apparent when comparing sales volumes (Figure 2) with MSRP

(Figure 1). The CR-V and RAV4 are the best-selling models in CY23-26 YTD, and they

have the highest base and average MSRPs. This suggests that within the same segment,

company efforts and brand strength are the most important factors, outweighing unit