PAYX - Slight MS Miss Drives Underperformance, but Feel Better About Guidance Heading into FY27

Research evidence excerpt

PAYX - Slight MS Miss Drives Underperformance, but Feel Better About Guidance Heading into FY27

Business and Information Services

Business and Information Services - Market Weight

PAYCHEX, INC. (PAYX) June 24, 2026

PAYX - Slight MS Miss Drives Underperformance, but Feel Rating:

Better About Guidance Heading into FY27 Underperform

Price:

$96.30

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

Shares of PAYX underperformed today (-1.7% vs. the S&P -0.1%) following $95

% Upside:F4Q26 earnings. MS revenue in the quarter was a bit light, while FY27 guidance (1.3)%

was about in-line (expected by most investors). Maintain UP rating and $95 PT.

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●Heading into the print, we took a tactically neutral to slightly negative Company Information

stance on shares of PAYX as we believed FY27 guidance expectations 52-Week Range $86 - $148

of 5-6% revenue growth and HSD EPS growth were largely priced Market Cap. (MM) $34,503

Value (MM) $37,803 into shares/sentiment. PAYX guided to that level for FY27, with revenue Enterprise 358.3 Shares Out. (MM)

guidance consistent with its preliminary outlook. However, MS revenue ex- Avg. Value Traded (MM) $447.67

float missed the Street during the quarter, and we believe this likely drove the SI% of Float 6.2%

underperformance in shares today with guidance in-line. Unlike prior years, we

do not believe there are aspirational assumptions embedded in guidance. That 160150

said, we believe if current labor market trends persist, there may not be too 140

much room for upside to revenue guidance. We maintain our UP rating and 130120

$95 YE26 price target, predicated on ~15x our CY27 adj. EPS estimate of 110

$6.24. 10090