New Home Sales: May New Home Sales Decline ~7% MoM Missing the Consensus by ~9%

Research evidence excerpt

New Home Sales: May New Home Sales Decline ~7% MoM Missing the Consensus by ~9%

Homebuilders & Building Products

June 24, 2026

New Home Sales: May New Home Sales Decline ~7% MoM Exhibit 1 - NHS 2-Year

Missing the Consensus by ~9% Chart

900 60%

850 40%

750 20%The Wolfe Byte 700 0%

650May NHS declined -7.3% sequentially to 580K, missing the 640K Consensus

600 -20%

550 -40%estimate by 9.4%. Completed Inventory was flat, while Under Construction ticks

marginally higher MoM. Click here for our downloadable dataset. New Home Sales YoY % Change

Source: Wolfe Research, Census

May seasonally adjusted New Home Sales declined -7.3% MoM. At 580K, May NHS

Exhibit 2 - NHS Summarymissed the 640K Consensus by 9.4%. Compared to last year, May NHS decreased

-6.8%. May NHS were generally in-line with January (576K), but were -9.4% below New Home

the 640K T3M average as the West region was particularly weak, declining -26.9% Sales

sequentially on a difficult May comp. We question the veracity of West region May 2026 580

sequential performance, but are unsure if the 117K May metric or the 160K April April 2026 626

metric is the outlier. May West region NHS were -14.0% below the 136K 1Q MoM % -7.3%

YoY % -6.8%

average. May Completed Specs were flat MoM at 118K, while Under Construction

increased 2K or +80 bps to 261K. Net, Under Construction and Completed Specs Source: Wolfe Research, Census

are essentially flat since January, but are 22K or -5.5% lower YoY. Despite the NHS

miss, the housing equities are meaningfully outperforming, in part, driven by KBH's

2Q earnings and GM guide AMC yesterday and more importantly a -9 bp decline in the

10-year yield to 4.40% as the group remains highly sensitive to movements in rates.

Trevor Allinson, CFA