Warsh Majeure

Research evidence excerpt

Warsh Majeure

June 17, 2026 Warsh Majeure

Markets Likely to Test New Fed Chair

Jonathan Krinsky, CMT

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: (332) 400-5152 jkrinsky@btig.comTECHNICAL On Monday we wrote: 'Markets tend to do two things pretty reliably over time. They

'front run' well known catalysts, and they like to test new Fed Chairs.' Today, two-

year yields hit their highest level since early '25, and QQQ fell more than 1.5% from

intraday highs for its second consecutive day, triggering yet another warning shot after

Monday's SOXX reversal. While we are optimistic on the eventual broadening trade, as

we discussed on Monday some of that was likely front-run over the last couple of weeks.STRATEGY

Ultimately we still see a window for heightened volatility over the next few weeks, and

remain particularly cautious on the Tech/Semi/AI trade.

■ The Study. Today was just the fourth time in the last 15 years when QQQ did the

following on back-to-back days: fell at least -1.5% from intraday highs, closed within

25bps of its intraday low, lost at least -1% total, and started the first day above its

50 DMA (to eliminate deep correction occurrences).

■ The Returns: The prior three were Dec. '15, Feb. '18, and Feb. '25. All of those saw

at least a -5% decline over the ensuing 30 days. 2015 saw a modest bounce before

a -13% drop. 2025 saw a further -21% decline.

■ The Takeaway: Cautious signals continue to pile up. Yesterday we discussed how

the SOXX gave a warning shot with a -3% day immediately following a 52wk high.

Today we have the QQQ signal. With the market often testing a new Fed chair early

in their term, we continue to see risk in the Tech/Semi/AI groups right now.

■ Testing the New Chair. Two-year yields pushing to the highest level since early '25.