Tariff Refund Riddle: No Apples-to-Apples in Earnings Outlooks

Research evidence excerpt

Tariff Refund Riddle: No Apples-to-Apples in Earnings Outlooks

June 17, 2026 Tariff Refund Riddle: No Apples-to-Apples

in Earnings Outlooks

Robert Drbul

(332) 400-5186 rdrbul@btig.comCONSUMER WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Janine Stichter ■ With the Supreme Court's February ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs, refunds have

(212) 738-6052 jstichter@btig.com become one of the most closely watched variables across our coverage universe.

Exiting CY1Q26 earnings, companies have taken a wide range of approaches to Ethan Saghi

(212) 588-6595 esaghi@btig.comRETAIL accounting for potential recoveries. Some have already baked refund assumptions

into full-year guidance, while others are taking a more conservative stance, Jake Katsikas

assuming zero recovery until there is greater process clarity. Companies have also (212) 738-6162 jkatsikas@btig.com

had to embed a forward tariff rate assumption into their outlooks, with views

ranging from those expecting further negotiated relief to those assuming current

rates hold or even move higher. The result is a patchwork of earnings outlooks thatINDUSTRY are difficult to compare apples-to-apples. In this note, we lay out each company

in our coverage universe alongside their respective tariff refund assumptions and

how, if at all, those assumptions have been reflected in guidance.

■ While IEEPA tariffs have been over-turned, Section 122 tariffs (10%) expire at the

end of July, at which point companies face the potential for Section 301 tariffsREPORT

(timing and magnitude still uncertain). If these tariffs fall in the 15%-20% range

as most companies are forecasting, tariffs will be higher YoY in H1'27 for most

companies (vs. 10% rates in H1'26) and potentially into H2'27. For those companies