The Daily Froth: June Payrolls Preview

Research evidence excerpt

The Daily Froth: June Payrolls Preview

Economics

U.S. Economics

The Daily Froth: June Payrolls Preview June 23, 2026

We expect June payrolls to show further signs of labor market momentum, with 155k jobs added versus

the 118k consensus estimate. We expect average hourly earnings to increase a modest 0.26% MoM, while the

unemployment rate should remain unchanged at a rounded 4.3%, though it may edge higher by a few basis points.

This report should tell more of the same story: further evidence that labor market stabilization is broadening, while

AI-exposed sectors remain relatively sluggish. We'll also be watching for signs of seasonal weakness, as the

unemployment rate has historically shown a tendency to drift higher during the summer months. Notably, this will

be the first jobs report in which the survey period coincides with the start of the FIFA World Cup, which we believe

could boost leisure and hospitality employment by an additional 35k.

An outcome in line with our forecast may have only a limited market impact, depending on the composition of

the gains and the extent to which investors view them as World Cup-related. Markets have already adjusted

to a stronger labor market and a more hawkish Fed. As a result, it would likely take a meaningful upside surprise

(particularly in wages) to push market pricing materially more hawkish.

We're forecasting June nonfarm payrolls growth of 155k, above the 118k Bloomberg consensus estimate. Our

forecast consists of 150k in private payrolls and 5k in government. We expect continued recovery in cyclical hiring—

in construction and manufacturing, for example.

We are also incorporating an estimated 35k boost to payrolls from FIFA World Cup-related hiring in June, primarily

within leisure and hospitality.