Iran disruption tracker #78: As flows restart, is the worst over for oil? (Tracker is now adhoc)

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #78: As flows restart, is the worst over for oil? (Tracker is now adhoc)

June 23, 2026

Summary: Day #116

What changed today vs yesterday

●Hormuz traffic showing early recovery: A growing number of oil tankers are broadcasting AIS signals and

indicating intent to transit the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a tentative normalization of traffic through the

chokepoint. Prior to the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, many tankers were reportedly operating with

AIS/transponders switched off around the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Strait of Hormuz to reduce attack risk.

●Pakistani PM indicated that Iran’s ballistic missiles are not being discussed. Iran said that this would never be

part of the negotiations as they need protection.

●Oman is coordinating with International Maritime Organization to allow temporary passage through Strait

without a “transit fee” in accordance with international and maritime laws in a move to help move thousands of

stranded ships.

●US said that Iran had agreed to UN inspectors for nuclear sites while Iran said it had not. That said, the POTUS

indicated that he would have called off the peace negotiations if Iran had not agreed.

●Gulf diplomacy focus: Rubio is seeking support from the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain for free navigation under

international law, reinforcing U.S. efforts to keep the Strait open after the recent U.S.–Iran truce.

●Toll-free window in place: A 60-day toll-free period is reportedly now in effect following the truce, while broader

talks continue around sanctions, ceasefires, and maritime-security arrangements.

●U.S.–Iran talks progressing: Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the U.S. and Iran held

“encouraging” talks in Switzerland and can work together to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.