Pop Mart: Early "Labubu 4.0" Feedback Highlights Growing Risk of Demand Fatigue

Research evidence excerpt

Pop Mart: Early "Labubu 4.0" Feedback Highlights Growing Risk of Demand Fatigue

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Sell Pop Mart 26 June 2026

Company Update

Asia

China

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 26 Jun 2026 (HKD) 156.00

9992.HK 9992 HK HSI 9992

Price target - 12mth (HKD) 140.00

Consumer

335.40 -

Retail / Wholesale Trade 52-week range (HKD) 141.80

HANG SENG INDEX 23,077

Early "Labubu 4.0" Feedback Highlights

Valuation & Risks Growing Risk of Demand Fatigue

Sammi Xu

Softer sell-through and discounts signal pressure on Labubu IP cycle Research Analyst

Pop Mart launched THE MONSTERS Hair Salon series online on June 25 and offline +852-2203-5415

on June 26 in China, with the blind box priced at RMB159. Although the company

has not confirmed whether this series belongs to Labubu 4.0, the launch timing Price/price relative

suggests it is one of Pop Mart’s key releases this year. The product was launched 400

around the World Cup period, when Labubu received global sports-event exposure

in World Cup opening ceremony, and shortly after Lisa’s endorsement on this 200

product series, both of which likely lifted investor and consumer expectations.

Jul '24 Jan '25 Jul '25 Jan '26 Jul '26

However, initial market feedback appears much weaker than expected:

Pop Mart HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased)

n On the first day of launch, only two to three of the seven designs traded at Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m

a premium in the secondary market, including the secret edition, while

Absolute 5.0-27.2-37.3

several standard editions fell much below the official retail price. Two less

HANG SENG INDEX -8.6 -6.6 -3.2

popular editions were trading at around RMB107, representing a clear

discount to the RMB159 retail price. This contrasts with previous IP Source: Deutsche Bank