Refining Estimates for Florida SDP, Core Growth vs. Prior Model Unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Refining Estimates for Florida SDP, Core Growth vs. Prior Model Unchanged

Health Care Facilities & Services

HCA Healthcare

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC ESTIMATE CHANGES

June 24, 2026

Price: $389.55 (06/24/2026) Refining Estimates for Florida SDP, Core

Price Target: $431.00 Growth vs. Prior Model Unchanged

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 58/100

Ryan Langston THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1418

Following our recent model changes (here), we are updating our expectations for the Florida

ryan.langston@tdsecurities.com

SDP program incremental benefit expected in 2Q26 to ~$450m. We use data from the Florida

William Spivack AHCA, which provides transparency into SDP allocations. We continue to expect HCA will

202 868 5302 accrue 4 quarters of benefit in 2Q26. We are not modeling any benefit in 2027. Our PT remains

william.spivack@tdsecurities.com

$431, 9.5x our 2027E EBITDA-NCI est.

Christian Borgmeyer, CFA

646 562 1430 Refining Florida SDP Estimate Using AHCA Data - We are updating our HCA model to

christian.borgmeyer@tdsecurities.com incorporate explicit data from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA),

Gary Taylor which provides transparency into SDP allocations by facility. This data set allows us to more

646 562 1450 precisely estimate the magnitude and allocation of the Florida SDP $ amounts to hospitals.

gary.taylor@tdsecurities.com Our 2Q26 adj EBITDA now reflects a +$450m yty incremental benefit from the FY25 Florida

program.

Key Data

Symbol NYSE: HCA Recent Data Points to Softer Volumes/Revenue Growth in 2Q26 - We recently reduced

Beta: 1.47 our core growth assumptions in 2Q26 and 2H26 by -50bps, resulting in a -$33m/-$70m

52-Week Range: $544.57-$333.50 headwind to 2Q/2H26 adj EBITDA. Our May 2026 hospital survey showed ~flat yty revenue,