Germany: ifo business climate (June) Regaining some lost ground at a slow pace

Research evidence excerpt

Germany: ifo business climate (June) Regaining some lost ground at a slow pace

Economics - Data Reactions ● Germany

24 June 2026

Interestingly, the headline index increase was mostly driven by an improvement in current conditions to a 12-month high. Outside

May, the current conditions index in manufacturing reached the best level since June 2024, although the improvement is narrow

based in sectors closely linked to defence. And in stark contrast to the PMIs, services firms assessed their current situation better

than before the Middle East conflict kicked off (February 2026). Expectations ticked up in June, but less so than could have been

expected given the newly negotiated framework agreement between the US and Iran and news of several tankers successfully

passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It may take another month or so and more evidence of a normalization of energy flows for

German corporates to trust the durability of the deal and look more positively towards the future.

The domestic reform agenda gaining some momentum in recent weeks may also boost the mood. A taskforce has delivered 33 key

suggestions on how to reform the pension system, which the coalition vowed it would fully implement (Handelsblatt, 23 June).

Moreover, some government members suggested that healthcare and income tax reforms may also be presented before the

parliamentary summer recess begins next week – although the short timeframe makes us rather sceptical. The pension reform is vital

to reduce pressure on public finances, though it does little to ease the uptrend in non-wage labour costs and the decline in

competitiveness. In the short term, the suggested Swedish style capital pillar even leads to higher contribution rates by 2028,