US Banks 2026 stress tests: Not binding but some winners still emerge (MS, COF, SYF)

Research evidence excerpt

US Banks 2026 stress tests: Not binding but some winners still emerge (MS, COF, SYF)

24 June 2026

US Banks EquitiesBanks

2026 stress tests: Not binding but some winners still

emerge (MS, COF, SYF) United States

◆ 2026 stress tests don’t impact capital requirements but are Saul Martinez

worth paying attention to Head of US Financials Research HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

◆ Using the 2026 tests, we estimate SCBs would mostly be saul1.martinez@us.hsbc.com

+1 212 525 6874

moderately lower than what is in current min CET1s Calvin Carlo*

◆ We think results most notable (and positive) for MS, COF Analyst,HSBC Mexico,US FinancialsS.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo

(Discover in there), and first timer SYF Financierocalvin.carlo@hsbc.com.mxHSBC

+52 55 8551 5022

The Federal Reserve (Fed) released the 2026 stress test results for 32 participating

banks. This year’s test is less consequential as the Fed announced in February 2026 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

that stress capital buffers (SCBs) will be maintained at current levels until 2027 when not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

new capital requirements will be based on models that incorporate public

commentary. In other words, the 2026 stress tests don’t impact capital requirements.

That said, we think the results are worth paying attention to. In particular, they could

provide helpful indications of where SCBs are trending and, in some cases, help

inform capital allocation decisions. On pg 2, we estimate hypothetical SCBs and

minimum CET 1 ratios under the 2026 stress test results and compare them to

current levels that are binding for the institutions we cover subject to the tests. We

give six takeaways below.

1.