DFTX: In The Sky With Diamonds: Best-Case Data A Major De-Risking Event For '120 Program; Raise Tgt To $57

Research evidence excerpt

DFTX: In The Sky With Diamonds: Best-Case Data A Major De-Risking Event For '120 Program; Raise Tgt To $57

Definium Therapeutics Inc

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

We see a good rationale to pursue DT120 (LSD) in anxietyDefinium Therapeutics Inc

disorders and MDD given both the historical data and the ph.II

70 125 Weeks 30JAN24 - 19JUN26 investigator-sponsored work. We believe a treatment that

60 matches DT120’s potential – with a differentiated mechanism,

TARGETTARGET 57.0057.00

50 high efficacy, and good durability – can be attractive to

40 psychiatrists and patients, if it can overcome social stigma,

30 regulatory, and administration challenges. With shares trading

CURRENTCURRENT 24.4824.48

20 near cash, we see underappreciated upside potential for

10 a thoughtful and targeted program in GAD. We also note

0 potential optionality for DFTX in ADHD, Autism, and opioid use

60m disorder, though given the earlier-stage nature of these, we

40m

20m ascribe less value to these programs.

2024 2025 2026

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

DFTX US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks • Key positives: (1) Initial clinical data is suggestive of real

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target effects in anxiety patients and there is a long history of

Valuation use in mental health for this compound; (2) extensive use

Our $57 price target blends DCF (using 11% discount rate history suggests that there are unlikely to be any surprising

and a 1.5% terminal growth rate) and sales multiple (25x on safety signals; (3) potential for acute dosing and long-lasting

2031E adjusted EPS discounted at 11%, standard for biotechs efficacy can be a clear differentiator among mental health

balancing high reward/risk potential) analyses.