2026 RBC Capital Markets European Consumer & Retailing Conference Preview

Research evidence excerpt

2026 RBC Capital Markets European Consumer & Retailing Conference Preview

l -13% by the

end of March, and since then has recovered by 11%. Conversely, the European Retailing index fell

-19% in Q1, driven by larger cap non-food retailers underperforming, but has recovered by 6% so far

in Q2. Valuations are now mid-range to slightly above the middle of their historical ranges. We favour

a barbell approach and prefer high quality compounders, eg, Inditex and NEXT, plus midcaps with

likely positive earnings revisions or underappreciated self-help, eg, Currys and B&M. We are relatively

cautious on companies with likely more sluggish sales and earnings momentum, eg, 3i Group and ABF.

• Consumer staples - not so defensive; size matters. The sector no longer seems to be behaving

either as a defensive refuge or bond proxy; (see Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes). This cadence shows no sign of

moderating: the MSCI European consumer staples index has underperformed the European market by

7% year to date, having underperformed by more than 30% over the last three years. That said, there

are glimmers of light. Valuations have come down significantly: mid-teens P/E ratios now look normal.

Meanwhile, the three largest stocks in the sector – Nestlé, L'Oréal and ABI – have all outperformed

YTD, making us wonder whether scale is once more becoming a competitive advantage (Size matters).

Indeed, the brewers appear to be doing okay overall, with Carlsberg +5% relative and Heineken

performing in line.

• Transportation - geopolitics and fuel headwinds front of mind. The Iran conflict and resulting spike

in fuel prices has dominated the outlook for European airlines YTD. There has been greater scope for

European airlines to pass on fuel headwinds in long-haul, where they are competing with unhedged