Commodities Check In: Key Inputs Sequentially Favorable

Research evidence excerpt

Commodities Check In: Key Inputs Sequentially Favorable

I N D U S T R Y N O T E

J u n e 2 2 , 2 0 2 6

Consumer Staples

CONCLUSION Michael S. Lavery

We check in bi-weekly on some of the key inputs for our covered companies, which have Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

broad, growing inflationary pressure. We include charts inside the note and summarize 212 284-9511, michael.lavery@psc.com

key changes below, both sequentially and y-o-y. Crude oil, urea and aluminum prices have Luke Maloney

dropped sharply sequentially, though each continue to have the worst y-o-y pressure on Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

212 284-9358, luke.maloney@psc.comaverage in 2Q26TD. Cocoa futures, chicken, coffee futures, and ocean freight rates all

remain favorable y-o-y.

Related Companies: Share Price:

CELH 30.80

• Sequential changes: Broadly, input costs are neutral in the latest two weeks. Urea, CL 89.48

crude oil, aluminum, and soybean oil prices have fallen sharply in the latest two weeks. COCO 84.02

Cocoa futures rose sharply flat in the latest two weeks and is now at ~$4.7k/ton (~£3.5k/ CPB 21.15

ton). Midwest Premium (MWP) remains very elevated and is a notoriously difficult and FRPT 55.01

expensive input cost to hedge, so current costs likely impact our beverage companies GIS 33.42

more quickly. Ocean freight rates rose sharply in the latest two weeks, but are well below HRL 24.16

2025's average level. Coffee and wheat prices rose in the latest two weeks. HSY 172.63

KDP 30.76

KHC 22.82

• Year-over-year changes: Cocoa costs remain a focus and continue to look deflationary KMB 102.56

for 2027, but forecasts for a strong El Niño weather pattern could temper yields in KO 79.39

next season's crop. Cocoa and chocolate suppliers indicated that cocoa costs are likely MDLZ 60.12