Quick Note - India Hotels: 4QFY26 earnings review - War-related volatility giving opportunity; expect strong 2HFY27

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Note - India Hotels: 4QFY26 earnings review - War-related volatility giving opportunity; expect strong 2HFY27

Global Markets Research

India Hotels: 4QFY26 earnings review 15 June 2026

EQUITY: GAMING, HOTELS & LEISURE

War-related volatility giving opportunity; expect strong 2HFY27 Research Analysts

India Property

Akash Gupta - NFASLQuick Note akash.gupta3@nomura.com

+ 91 22 40374043TheIndiahotelssectorreported4QFY26revenue/EBITDAgrowthof12%y-y/9%y-y,

drivenbyastrongperformanceinJan-Feb,thoughimpactedbydisruptionsinMarch.

Overall,wehighlightkeytakeawaysfromthe4QFY26earningsofourcoverednames:

• Domesticdemandisholdingupstrong,whilethenegativeimpactonADRrealizations

duetoalowerinternationalmixislimited.

• Withindomesticdemand,wethinkleisuredemandremainsstrong,astravellerswhich

werepreviouslyplanningvacationsoutsideIndiaappeartobelookingatoptions

withinIndia.

• Inaddition,playerssuchasIndianHotels(IHIN,Buy)benefitfrombigeventssuchas

visitsfromHeadsofstates

• Assuch,weexpect1QFY27Ftobestrongforourcoveredplayers,withafocuson

thesuper-luxurysegment,orthosewhichcancapturedelegationtraveldemand.

• FromanFY27F/FY28Fperspective,weestimatethesectorrecordedconsensus

EBITDAearningscutsof3%/4%,respectively,drivenpartlybyrevenuecuts

andslowerEBITDAmarginimprovementat60bpannually(vs150bpannually

previously).

• Atthesectorlevel(combiningBloombergconsensusforNotRatedstocks),we

estimatethesectorislookingat14%y-y/16%y-yEBITDAgrowthinFY27F/

FY28F.

• Withvisibilityonwarconditionsimproving,webelievethesectorisduefora

rerating.Sectoraveragevaluationsat15xFY28FEV/EBITDAareatlevelsseen

inFY10-FY14whenADRswereinadowncycle.

Belowareourkeytakeaways:

1. ADR (Average Daily Rate) growth strongest in the super luxury segment.