Global Macro Commentary: June 26: Tech Rotation Rates Rally

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary: June 26: Tech Rotation Rates Rally

Update

June 26, 2026 09:35 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

June 26: Tech Rotation Rates Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Rally Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Oil fell; AI-linked equities underperformed; Fed hike bets eased;

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

US data were mixed; DXY at 101.36 (-0.1%); US 10y at 4.37 (- Gek Teng Khoo

2.4bp). StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

Lower oil and softer inflation compensation drove a front-end-led rates rally, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

while equity risk rotated away from AI leadership and into defensive sectors. Hiromu Uezato

Developed Markets Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

• US rates bull-steepened as lower oil prices reduced inflation-risk premia Nimish M Prabhune

and traders eased near-term Fed tightening expectations. The front end Strategist

Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

led the rally, with 2y and 5y yields falling more than the long end (2y: -3.1bp;

5y: -3.7bp; 30y: +0.3bp). US breakevens also declined, led by the front end Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Jasper Knyphausen (2y BEI: -5.1bp; 5y BEI: -1.4bp). The move followed WTI falling below $70 and

Brent declining 3.0%, which reduced the pressure from recent energy- Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

related inflation concerns. The curve steepened on a bull move as markets

reassessed the need for additional Fed hikes.

• US equities were mixed, with index-level performance masking a large