AXA 1H26 results preview: on track to deliver 8% EPS growth in 2026E; reiterate OW

Research evidence excerpt

AXA 1H26 results preview: on track to deliver 8% EPS growth in 2026E; reiterate OW

Farooq Hanif AC Europe Equity Research

(44 207) 742-8091 26 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

AXA has delivered a strong fundamental improvement over the

past two years in its previously troubled XL unit, by reducing

exposure to volatile lines/property-cat risk/reinsuring legacy

social inflation risk. We expect it to deliver strong EPS growth

consistent with its 2023-26 6-8% guidance, supported by clear

identifiable levers to improve margins in retail P&C and health.

We also think AXA’s risk profile has improved considerably,

with one of the strongest capital positions of its composite peers,

and attractive capital return. We forecast a regular SBB aof

YTD 1m 3m 12m €1.2bn-1.4bn p.a. in upcoming years. If AXA is able to

Abs 5.2% 6.5% 13.1% 3.2% demonstrate stable execution on growth and margin expansion,

Rel -3.2% 4.9% 3.8% -16.2%

with lower earnings volatility and strong capital return, we think

Company Data it could close its valuation gap with composite peers. We believe

Shares O/S (mn) 2,265 AXA could indicate EPS CAGR towards the upper end of its

52-week range (€) 43.61-36.55 current 6%-8% target range in its next 3-year strategic plan at its

Market cap ($ mn) 110,946.30

Exchange rate 0.88 CMD on 15 September 2026.

Free float (%) 82.4%

Valuation3M ADV (mn) 3.94

3M ADV ($ mn) 182.4 We value AXA at €50 per share, based on an estimated

Volatility (90 Day) 21 sustainable comprehensive ROE of ~17% across-the-cycle,

Index MSCI Europe

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 22|3|0 which is calculated based on normalised margin assumptions.

This includes a long-term combined ratio of ~91%. In the life