Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview: Asia – Macro Catalysts: China's Manufacturing PMI, Japan's BOJ Tankan, and Korea's Exports

Research evidence excerpt

Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview: Asia – Macro Catalysts: China's Manufacturing PMI, Japan's BOJ Tankan, and Korea's Exports

IdeaCatalystMEvent Preview

Location / Catalyst Date Importance Surprise

Australia

Private Sector Credit (May) 30 Jun 26 Neutral In-line

Takeaways:

• We expect private sector credit will have increased 0.6%M in May, pushing the annual rate to 8.5%Y.

• Looking ahead, we see credit growth softening over the next 6 months across both housing and

business, with leading indicators already pointing to a sharper slowdown as the economic backdrop

weakens.

House Prices (May) 01 Jul 26 Neutral N/A

• We expect house prices will have declined in May, with weakness most evident in Sydney and

Melbourne as the housing downturn becomes more entrenched.

• While the eastern capitals are likely to continue leading the declines, momentum is also expected to

ease in Perth and Brisbane, in line with a broader softening already evident in leading indicators.

Building Approvals (May) 01 Jul 26 Neutral Modest upside surprise

• We expect building approvals will have increased 2.0%M, 10.1%Y, in May, marking a partial rebound

following two consecutive monthly declines.

• Approvals are typically an early cycle indicator, and with housing conditions weakening and

construction costs still elevated, we expect underlying momentum to soften from here.

Trade Balance (May) 02 Jul 26 Neutral In-line

• We expect the trade surplus to widen to A$2.5bn in May, driven by a sharper decline in imports than

exports.

• Export volumes should moderate after a strong prior month, while import softness is likely to reflect

some normalisation in fuel imports.

China

NBS manufacturing PMI 30 Jun 26 High In-line

• We expect China's June manufacturing PMI at 50.1, due to continued support from high-end