CEEMEA Macro Strategy: Egypt | Tapping 23% Yields Again

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Macro Strategy: Egypt | Tapping 23% Yields Again

IdeaM

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Below you will find a list of our current trade ideas, entry levels, entry dates, rationales,

and risks.

Exhibit 5: Valuation methodology and risks

Trade Date Entry Level Target Stop Rationale Risks

We inititate bullish bias towards EGP-denominated assets as we see the macroeconomic backdrop remaining supportive. We prefer to Risk-off sentiment leading to

our view via T-Bills given the significant pick-up offered relative to FX-implied yields. Potential for a further normalisation in ME Long 6-month EGP T-Bills (FX-Unhedged) 26-Jun-26 89.6 100 86 express

concentrated outflows.

and low oil prices should provide support for the external balances and the currency.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Definition of terms

Buy/Long: The analyst expects the total or excess return (depending on the nature of the

recommendation) of the instrument or issuer that is the subject of the investment

recommendation to be positive over the relevant time period.

Sell/Short: The analyst expects the total or excess return (depending on the nature of the

recommendation to be negative over the relevant time period.

Selling protection or Buying Risk: The analyst expects that the price of protection against

the event occurring will decrease over the relevant time period.

Buying protection or Selling Risk: The analyst expects the price of protection against the

event occurring will increase over the relevant time period.

Pay: The analyst expects that over the specified time period the variable rate underlying

the swap agreement that is the subject of the investment recommendation will increase.

Receive: The analyst expects that over the specified time period the variable rate