US Economics Weekly: The data road map to rate hikes

Research evidence excerpt

US Economics Weekly: The data road map to rate hikes

IdeaMExhibit 21: Monday

Monday 29 June Data Period Forecast Consensus Prev

10:30 AM Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Jun 0.4

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts

We will finalize our forecast for the manufacturing ISM index after the Dallas Fed factory

survey is reported.

Exhibit 22: Tuesday

Tuesday 30 June Data Period Forecast Consensus Prev

9:00 AM FHFA House Price Index m/m Apr 0.1

9:00 AM S&P Cotality CS 20-City m/m SA Apr -0.2

9:45 AM MNI Chicago PMI Jun 63

10:00 AM Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Jun 94.6 93.1

10:00 AM JOLTS Job Openings May 7360 7618

10:30 AM Dallas Fed Services Activity Jun -8

Job openings and labor turnover. Noisy labor data in February-March gave the impression

of a sharp slowdown in the labor market and then a steep rebound. JOLTS data showed

the same zig-zag and, like the payrolls report, it extended the rebound into April. There's

no sign in the JOLTS data of sudden disruption to the labor market following the Middle

East conflict. And smoothing through the volatility, there's not too much change since a

year ago in hiring or firing rates, although job openings surged in April.

In April, job openings jumped to their highest in 2 years. 90% of the rise reflected 1

industry (professional and business services), which lessens the credibility of the increase.

There was no subsequent hiring spree in May in professional and business services.

Conference Board consumer confidence survey. Labor market assessments improved in

the past two months. The net percentage of people seeing more job availability rose from

a recent low of 5.7% in February to 6.1%, 7.5%, and 6.9% in March, April, and May.

Exhibit 23: Wednesday

Wednesday 01 July Data Period Forecast Consensus Prev