Astellas Pharma (4503) Model update: Revising our estimates to reflect R&D expense budget in medium-term plan and lowering our price target to ¥2,300

Research evidence excerpt

Astellas Pharma (4503) Model update: Revising our estimates to reflect R&D expense budget in medium-term plan and lowering our price target to ¥2,300

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

27 June 2026

Astellas Pharma (4503)

Model update: Revising our estimates to reflect R&D Neutral

expense budget in medium-term plan and lowering our 4503.T, 4503 JP

price target to ¥2,300 Price (26 Jun 26):¥2,145

▼Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,300

Prior (Dec-26):¥2,500

We revise our earnings estimates to reflect 4Q FY2025 results and the medium-

term plan (FY2026-30). We lower our price target from ¥2,500 to ¥2,300 and Japan Equity Research

maintain our Neutral rating. We reflect higher R&D spending (¥2 trillion over five Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals/

years) than we had previously assumed for the next five years. For core operating Medical Technologies & Services

profit, we raise our FY2026 estimate due to higher Myrbetriq sales and other AC Seiji Wakao, Ph.D.

positive factors, fine tune our estimates for FY2027, and lower our estimates for (81-3) 6736-8612

FY2028-30. seiji.wakao@jpmorgan.com

Yugo R. Kamimura, Ph.D.

The shares adjusted around the 4Q FY2025 results announcement before the MTP (81-3) 6736-8635

was announced because management had discussed its content (especially the 30% yugo.kamimura@jpmorgan.com

core operating profit margin), giving the market reason to view the MTP as a Naoko Saito

positive catalyst. Lately, the shares have been soft due to the shift of investor capital (81-3) 6736-8693

into AI and semiconductor names. With Astellas entering a period of profit decline naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

from FY2027 due to the Xtandi patent expiration, we think the focus will be on JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.