PRIM: The Reset, Once More; Renewables Costs Deepen and 2027 Trust Must Be Earned

Research evidence excerpt

PRIM: The Reset, Once More; Renewables Costs Deepen and 2027 Trust Must Be Earned

June 22, 2026

In our view, both the Renewables leadership transition and the COO

departure reflect the company's efforts to strengthen accountability and

execution oversight following the Renewables reset. PRIM noted that

the COO's departure was treated as a termination without cause and was

unrelated to financial or accounting matters or any disagreement with the

company.

We maintain our Neutral rating and our modeling assumptions are

under review pending Wednesday’s public webcast, 2Q detail, project

closeout evidence and a refreshed view of 2027 earnings power. The update

does not undermine the broader demand story, but it raises the bar for

confidence in PRIM’s execution and the reliability of its forecast.

Summary

Guidance reset is substantial: FY26 Adj. EBITDA was reduced to $275-325M

from $480-500M, Adj. EPS to $2.05-2.60 from $4.80-5.00, and GAAP net

income to $71-101M from $223-234M. At the midpoint, the update implies

~39% lower Adj. EBITDA, 53% lower Adj. EPS, and 57% lower GAAP net

income versus the outlook in May at 1Q26 earnings. Management indicated

that the majority of the impact is expected to be reflected in 2Q26 results.

What changed: Management cited additional Renewables challenges

and cost overruns identified through continued project progress and an

ongoing third-party review by industry experts. In our IR follow-up, the

company indicated that remobilization activity in May and the third-party

assessment informed the revised cost-to-complete assumptions.

The scope remains focused on the six projects: the overruns are primarily

related to the six previously discussed Renewables projects. Two are

substantially complete; three more are expected to reach substantial