ASX Mining: Cu LT price update

Research evidence excerpt

ASX Mining: Cu LT price update

Macquarie Equity Research ASX Mining: Cu LT price update

We recently updated our price forecasting methodology

Recently, we updated our price forecast methodology with the following changes:

• CY26-27: We migrated to a market-based forecast, utilising forward curves for major

commodities for a period of 18 months out to the end of calendar year 2027. We did this

to more closely align forward earnings forecasts to market conditions.

• CY28: We incorporated a transition period from our market-based CY26-27 forecast to our

longer-term forecast (>CY29), utilising a linear transition.

• >CY29: We retained the Macquarie's Economics and Commodities Strategy team's longer-

run price forecasts.

The recent update led to the following positioning versus consensus for key commodities

across the short term (CY26e) and medium term (CY27-29e) horizons, with LT (>CY30e)

largely unchanged:

• Iron ore: We remained even-weight (in line with consensus) with pricing at US$102/t

unchanged in CY26e. We also remained even-weight across the medium term (CY27-29e)

with prices of US$97/t, US$91/t US$98/t, which were largely unchanged versus our prior

forecasts.

• Met-Coal: We remained overweight (above consensus) for met-coal in CY26e, with pricing

at US$251/t, which we had increased 10% versus our prior forecasts. We also remained

overweight across the medium term (CY27-29e) with prices of US$265/t, US$235/t and US

$215/t, which were increased 19%/6%/0% versus our prior forecasts.

• Copper: We upgraded copper in CY26e to overweight (above consensus) with pricing at US

$6.06/lb, which we had increased 9% versus our prior forecasts. We also upgraded copper to

even-weight across the medium term (CY27-29e) with prices of US$6.16/lb, US$5.43/lb and