Cantor Daily Research Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

Cantor Daily Research Highlights

June 22, 2026

Scenario #4 - If success is a coin toss, what level of commercial success is required? Our best guess is that most investors

will lack conviction on the outcome of Phase 3 trials for BIIB080. If we (somewhat simply) assume that success in Phase 3 is

a 50/50 probability, what peak sales estimate is required for this investment to make sense?

■ Our analysis suggests this threshold is reached when BIIB080 achieves sales of $1.9B by 2036. To put this in perspective,

BIIB080 would need to be modestly more successful than either Leqembi or Kisunla alone. Stated differently, BIIB080

would need to capture 60-65% of the combined sales of these two drugs.

Scenario 4: Sensitivity Analysis

Source: Cantor Research

June 22

Biotechnology:

Eric Schmidt (212-294-7724, Eric.Schmidt@cantor.com)

What’s the Hazard! Decoding the Infamous Hazard Ratio

Hazard ratios (HRs) are a nearly ubiquitous measure in clinical trial reporting. Most investors understand intuitively that an

HR=0.70 equates to a 30% reduction in the risk that an event occurs on the drug arm of a study. But to truly understand how

HRs can be used (and misused), how a Kaplan-Meier curve should be interpreted, or even scrutinized, and how interim time-

to-event data may or may not be predictive of a final analysis requires a much deeper understanding of some key statistical

considerations.

In this report, we deconstruct the HR from the ground up to provide investors with all the tools needed to better understand

time-to-event analyses. We start with the basics: what a hazard rate is, how it is calculated, and how it is connected to the

Kaplan-Meier curves investors see in nearly every oncology data presentation. We then walk through how hazard rates are