European River Cruise Industry Deep Dive

Research evidence excerpt

European River Cruise Industry Deep Dive

Equity Research

Multi Company Update — June 22, 2026

Leisure

European River Cruise Industry Model and Market Level

TAM; Long-Term Estimates Appear Conservative

Our Call Trey Bowers, CFA

We provide a deep dive on the supply/demand outlook of the European river cruise Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Trey.Bowers@wellsfargo.com | 617-210-3724

industry as we did for ocean in our initiation. Street '27-'29 yield estimates may prove

Nicholas Weichelconservative at VIK given implied underlying Europe growth. Remain OW.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Nicholas.Weichel@wellsfargo.com | 646-717-0343

VIK's Dominant Foothold. VIK controls ~50% of the North America outbound river Zachary Silverberg

market with the majority of its fleet in Europe. According to Cruise Industry News Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

(CIN), VIK's European river fleet comprises ~24% of the European river berths. In '26, Zachary.Silverberg@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-1152

we estimate VIK's Europe river fleet should drive ~$1.9b in net revenue (+10% y/y)

vs. consensus total river net revenue of ~$2.2b. We believe the European river market

reached ~$7.1b in '25 net revenue (~$11.9b gross) with VIK at ~24% share.

RCL's Entry. In early '25, RCL announced that its Celebrity brand will be launching its own

European river offering in '27. Since then, RCL has largely sold out of '27 itineraries and

expanded its orderbook to include 20 total riverboats to be delivered by '32. Demand

for the product has been strong with pricing tracking materially ahead of VIK and peers,

which should moderate over time. In addition, we believe the launch of river could create a

halo effect for the entire Celebrity brand.

Capacity Growth.