IOCs, Int'l E&P, & Refiners: Anyone Else Sick of Macro?

Research evidence excerpt

IOCs, Int'l E&P, & Refiners: Anyone Else Sick of Macro?

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 22, 2026

Exploration & Production

Independent Refiners

Integrated Oil & Gas

International E&P

IOCs, Int'l E&P, & Refiners: Anyone Else Sick of

Macro?

Our Call Sam Margolin

Oil whipsaw is frustrating the market, but we believe balance sheet movement across Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Sam.Margolin@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8496

IOCs, int'l E&P, and Refiners represents actionable fundamentals into 2Q earnings season.

Emma LiangPreference for Refining and note deleveraging momentum in COP, SU, CNQ, APA.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Emma.Liang@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-3322

No Macro Update: There is no change to our macro views within the 60-day US/Iran Maya MacPherson

negotiation: we see "shortages" concentrated in refined products, and crude could be Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

supported at $75 through 2027 from restocking demand. Crack spreads have been Maya.L.Macpherson@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5324

more stable than crude prices, reflecting the relative balance. Macro war effects have

been expressed in stocks efficiently, with Refiners leading our coverage since March. As

earnings season approaches, net debt trends could emerge as a decisive factor.

Debt: Timing effects and WC outflows across IOCs, Refiners, and Intl IOCs distorted

March 31st net debt to varying degrees by company. From 2/27/26, share price

performance vs. 1Q26 change in net debt/cap shows a >0.7 r2, excluding OXY, which

reduced leverage in 1Q26 from an asset sale, but which had a working capital outflow due

to Al Hosn receivables. For 2Q, we expect broad deleveraging as 1Q neg timing effects

reverse and receivables convert to cash.