Global Nicotine: German tax hikes could lead to volume pressure

Research evidence excerpt

Global Nicotine: German tax hikes could lead to volume pressure

Equity Research

European Consumer Staples

25 June 2026

Global Nicotine

German tax hikes could lead to

volume pressure

Media reported that the MoF in Germany has released a draft European Consumer Staples

bill in which it plans to increase excise taxes on cigs from NEUTRAL

c€4.40/pack in 2027 to c€5.75/pack by 2030. If these tax hikes European Consumer Staples

Pallav Mittal

are passed through, we expect to see pressure on German +44 (0)20 7773 1376

tobacco volumes in our companies. pallav.mittal@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Morayo Adesina

German press agency dpa reported last week that it had seen a draft bill from the Ministry of

+44 (0)20 3134 9537

Finance in which it planned to raise excise taxes across cigarettes and "common tobacco morayo.adesina@barclays.com

products" (link). Barclays, UK

Why is this important?: Note that, within global tobacco, Germany is the second largest EBIT Laurence Whyatt

+44 (0)20 7773 5324pool after the US (excl. China). This is largely due to it being one of the most affordable cigarette

laurence.whyatt@barclays.com

markets (avg. price of cigs in Germany was c€8.65 in 2025 vs. France at €14.25 (link)), with a

relatively stable smoking prevalence (c.24% over the last few years) vs. steeper declines in other

markets such as the UK. These factors have made Germany a resilient tobacco market, therefore Warren Ackerman

+44 (0)20 3134 1903making it strategically important for all major international tobacco companies.

warren.ackerman@barclays.com

The draft bill highlights that the avg. price/pack of cigs in Germany could rise from €8.80 in 2027 Barclays, UK

to c€11.40 by 2030, i.e. a c10% hike per annum. This means the tax/pack of cigs would increase

from c€4.40 to €5.75/pack.