Tesla, Inc.: Decomposing 2Q26 deliveries: Is growth re-accelerating?

Research evidence excerpt

Tesla, Inc.: Decomposing 2Q26 deliveries: Is growth re-accelerating?

Equity Research

U.S. Autos & Mobility

25 June 2026

Tesla, Inc.

Decomposing 2Q26 deliveries: Is

growth re-accelerating?

Key takes: 1. Expect 2Q deliveries of ~418k units (+9% y/y), TSLA EQUAL WEIGHT

above cons. 396k; 2. Fundamentals overshadowed by AV/ U.S. Autos & Mobility NEUTRAL

Robotaxi/Optimus excitement, yet signs of growth should be Price Target USD 360.00

Price (23-Jun-26) USD 381.61

viewed positively; 3. Margin likely down q/q on non-repeat of Potential Upside/Downside -5.7%

1Q tailwinds/raw mats, though volume/mix/pricing appears Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

positive

Dan Levy

Ahead of the 2Q deliveries release it remains evident to us that auto volumes (and broader +1 212 526 3212

fundamentals) have increasingly become an afterthought. dan.levy@barclays.com

BCI, US

At this point we believe the stock is being driven almost exclusively by narrative, with hopes for

Josh Cho

a number of "inflection points" ahead for Tesla in Robotaxi, Optimus, and AI. Conversely, +1 212 526 7156

"fundamentals" such as 2Q deliveries and margins are increasingly an afterthought in joshua.cho@barclays.com

discussions...in our recent discussions on Tesla, the trajectory of the auto business has received BCI, US

almost no attention.

Joshua Young

+1 212 526 3280While growth verticals have taken center stage, we believe that a solid underlying auto business

jryoung@barclays.com

will be required to fund a portion of Tesla's growth aspirations, with capex guidance of $25bn+ BCI, US

in '26 and guides for elevated mid-term spend. To this point, our expectation for a 2Q delivery

beat and the potential for a return to volume growth should be viewed positively.