Morgan Stanley: 2Q26 EPS PREVIEW: Tailwinds in markets and IB persist through 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

Morgan Stanley: 2Q26 EPS PREVIEW: Tailwinds in markets and IB persist through 2H26

Equity Research

U.S. Large-Cap Banks

25 June 2026

Morgan Stanley

2Q26 EPS PREVIEW: Tailwinds in

markets and IB persist through

MS OVERWEIGHT2H26

Unchanged

Relative to 1Q25, we expect lower trading revenues U.S. Large-Cap Banks POSITIVE

(seasonality), higher IB fees, and lagged pricing impacting Unchanged

WM and IM fees. We expect continued share buyback with Price Target USDUnchanged230.00

continued progress on medium-term goals. Price (23-Jun-26) USD 226.03

Potential Upside/Downside +1.8%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Expected Results Market Cap (USD mn) 356513

Shares Outstanding (mn) 1577.28Expected results: We expect MS to report 2Q26 EPS of $2.89 (+$0.14 on investment banking

Free Float (%) 74.79strength) compared to consensus of $2.79. We expect trading revenues to remain strong,

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 6.1especially equities, while investment banking fees are strong. Underlying Wealth Management

Dividend Yield (%) 1.77(WM) and Investment Management (IM) trends remain positive though impacted by lagged

Return on Equity TTM (%) 17.36pricing. Expenses should be seasonally lower while share repurchase persists. At the start of

Current BVPS (USD) 66.182026, MS reiterated its financial goals including an ROTCE target of 20%, wealth management

Source: Bloomberg

pre-tax margin of 30%, and an efficiency ratio target of 70%. We expect its ROTCE to remain

above 20% in 2Q26.

Price Performance Exchange-NYSE

Expected gains/charges: In 1Q26, MS recognized severance costs of $198mn. We are not 52 Week range USD 230.47-130.90

modeling any one-time items for 2Q26.

Expected drivers: Relative to 1Q26, we expect lower trading revenues (seasonality), higher