US Equity Strategy: Upgrading into uncertainty

Research evidence excerpt

US Equity Strategy: Upgrading into uncertainty

Equity Research

Equity Strategy

25 June 2026

US Equity Strategy

Upgrading into uncertainty

Equities remain choppy as peace talks stop and start, and

questions linger about AI spend, funding and monetization,

higher-for-longer rates, and consumer strength. We focus on U.S. Equity Strategy

the improving earnings outlook, taking our S&P 500 FY26 EPS Venu+1 212Krishna,526 7328CFA

venu.krishna@barclays.comto $337 from $321 and our 2026 PT to 7800 from 7650.

BCI, US

Reprinted from Upgrading Into Uncertainty: Raise S&P 500 PT to 7800, FY26 EPS to $337, 23 June Rex Feng

+ 1 212 526 61142026.

rex.feng@barclays.com

• The macro regime remains complex, but the balance of risks still leans constructive. BCI, US

Labor data are strong enough to reduce recession risk, but also to push rate cuts further out. Riddhiman Dass

Input costs are rising again, though not yet a growth shock large enough to derail the cycle. +1 212 526 0850

The equity bull case remains intact, but earnings and AI capex visibility must do more of the riddhiman.dass@barclays.com

BCI, US work as Fed support fades and positioning is less able to absorb disappointment.

Tianqi Feng

• We raise our FY26 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $337 from $321, modestly below the +1 212 526 9179

Street's $341 and implying ~21% y/y growth from $279 in FY25. Tech earnings guidance and tianqi.feng@barclays.com

visibility remain underpinned by expanding AI capex, reflationary pressure should support BCI, US

nominal revenue growth, and the industrial side of the economy looks relatively supportive

into 2027, offsetting potential downside to consumer spending. We also introduce our FY27

EPS estimate at $389 (+15% Y/Y), below the Street's $398.

• Our 2026 S&P 500 price target goes to 7800 from 7650.