EDP Renewables "Sale of Brazilian assets to parent results in value..."

Research evidence excerpt

EDP Renewables "Sale of Brazilian assets to parent results in value..."

ts: (1) On financials, we see the deal as EPS and value accretive; (2) Strategically,

12/26E 0.42 0.43 1 0.42

Brazil offered no growth in the current 2026-28 Business Plan due to adverse market

12/27E 0.47 0.49 5 0.46

dynamics; and (3) from a balance sheet perspective the company now has an additional

12/28E 0.62 0.65 4 0.53

€1.5bn of funds available, materially increasing flexibility to sell less assets or to grow

faster if the right opportunities appear; we believe this may be the most Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona

underappreciated aspects of the deal, and believe either of these options could Analyst

potentially offer upside to our base case. As an illustrative example, incremental capex of gonzalo.sanchez-bordona@ubs.com

€1.5bn in the US under our underlying assumptions could result in c€0.4/sh. or 3% +34-91-745 4147

accretion to our fair value. Anna Webb

Analyst

4% avg. EBITDA cut but 3% avg. increase in EPS 27-29E mainly on Brazilian deal anna.webb@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 8293

We've incorporated the deal into our estimates along with slightly higher gains from

asset rotation and other some minor adjustments, resulting in an avg. 4% cut in EBITDA Wanda Serwinowska, CFA

27-29E but a 3% increase in EPS 27-29E. We are now 6/3% above consensus on 26E Analyst

wanda.serwinowska@ubs.com

EBITDA/net profit, but aligned with guidance. For 2028 we are above consensus and

+44-20-7568 3980

guidance by c€0.1bn on EBITDA and net profit.

Valuation: €15.00 DCF-driven SOTP PT, +6% mainly on Brazil, rotation gains

Existing capacity represents 59% of PT, additions 28% and sell-down gains 13%. EDPR

trades in line with its 10-yr history on 2yr fwd. P/E, which we think fairly reflects the more

mature business vs.