UBS: Fast Take: SKAN AG "On 18 June Moderna positive advisory committee for ..."

Research evidence excerpt

UBS: Fast Take: SKAN AG "On 18 June Moderna positive advisory committee for ..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 32.8%

Forecast dividend yield 1.5%

Forecast stock return 34.2%

Market return assumption 5.2%

Forecast excess return 29.0%

Company Description

SKAN is a Swiss-based manufacturer of high-end isolators for the aseptic filling of

biopharmaceutical products. Its product offering ranges from customised and standard

isolator solutions to automated filling stations, complemented by a broad range of aftersales

services and consumables. It operates under two divisions: Equipment & Solutions (E&S,

c75% of FY24 sales) and Services & Consumables (S&C, c25%). SKAN is headquartered in the

Basel area, Switzerland, with operations in Europe (c52% of sales), the Americas (c39%), Asia

(c8%) and the rest of the world (c1%).

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value the shares based on an average of: (1) a three-stage DCF model and (2) EV/EBITDA

peer multiples. We expect the stock to outperform relative to the industry as we believe it is

trading below fair value based on our forecasted growth profile and accordingly, we rate

SKAN Buy. Risks to our TP and Buy rating include: (1) capacity constraints; (2) project delays/

cancellations; (3) failure to develop'pre-approved' isolators; (4) dependence on key

customers; (5) supply-chain disruptions; and (6) termination of long-term partnerships.

MRNA: Our valuation is based on an EV/Sales multiple and is supported by our DCF sensitivity.

Risks: We believe the risks for MRNA shareholders include 1) lower uptake of COVID vaccines,

2) lower than expected sales in RSV due to competition, vaccine uptake or other factors, 3)

efficacy and/or safety setbacks in clinical pipeline programs. Separately, we note the stock