PG&E Corp "Rate Case Discount Defined; Likely to Decline" (Buy) Orrill

Research evidence excerpt

PG&E Corp "Rate Case Discount Defined; Likely to Decline" (Buy) Orrill

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

PG&E Corp Equities

United StatesRate Case Discount Defined; Likely to Decline

Electric Utilities

12-month rating Buy

What's Our Take?

With rate case briefs due July 2 we estimate an ~4% stock discount implied for rate case 12m price target US$22.00

risk based on Cal PA and TURN recommendations. This could get resolved through

settlement or rate case milestones. Net of the imputed wildfire risk in our valuation the

Price (24 Jun 2026) US$16.95

stock also prices in a 8.5% California allowed ROE versus the current 9.98%. We

reiterate our Buy rating for PCG's top quartile 9% EPS growth rate, no equity need at RIC: PCG.N BBG: PCG US

least through 2030 and strong wildfire prevention performance with no structures

Trading data and key metrics

destroyed since 2022. Wildfire legislation that addresses tail risk, rate case resolution or

52-wk range US$19.11-13.00

potential increases in capital return to shareholders represent potential catalysts.

Market cap. US$37.3b

What Have We Learned? Shares o/s 2,198m (COM)

Free float 100%

An AI powered review helped us to scope the intervenor positions in the company's

general rate case. We believe Cal Advocates' recommendation implies 5.8% ratebase Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,744

growth and TURN's recommendation implies 5.2% rate base growth versus the Avg. daily value (m) US$96.5

company and UBSe of 8.5 to 9.0%. Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$35.8b

P/BV (12/26E) 1.0x

2028 EPS rate case exposure. We estimate a $0.07 to $0.09 EPS exposure to Cal Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 5.7x

Advocates and TURN positions which is 4% of earnings.

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

Rate case process. Briefs are due 7/2 and reply briefs are due 7/23. A proposed 12/26E