Brazilian Utilities "ANEEL Fator X (Pd): early read — asset-level disper..."

Research evidence excerpt

Brazilian Utilities "ANEEL Fator X (Pd): early read — asset-level disper..."

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

Brazilian Utilities Equities

AmericasANEEL Fator X (Pd): early read — asset-level

dispersion, not holding beta Utilities

Giuliano Ajeje

Analyst

giuliano.ajeje@ubs.com

Public hearing to rewrite the Pd component of the Fator X +55-11-2767 6371

ANEEL has just opened a public consultation to rewrite the Pd component of the Henrique Simoes

Fator X. This is an early-stage proposal that initiates the regulatory discussion, and Associate Analyst

our analysis should be read as an initial view ahead of market price discovery. The henrique.simoes@ubs.com

window to form differentiated positioning is now — before the new mechanics are +55-11-2767 6308

fully understood and priced. Julia Ongarato

Associate Analyst

Our core call is straightforward: the market will read the reform as a holding-level julia.ongarato@ubs.com

positive (e.g., “good for Equatorial”), but this is incomplete — the economics are +55-11-2767 6694

decided asset by asset, and intra-group dispersion is materially underappreciated.

This is not a directional disagreement. The regulator is clearly moving toward

rewarding heavy investment. What is mispriced, in our view, is how unevenly that

reward is distributed within each group — and how much internal offsets matter at

the holding level.

The mechanism: a sign flip that drives dispersion

The proposal sets Pd as a 50/50 blend of sector and company productivity,

recalculated annually, materially increasing sensitivity to individual performance.

The key change is the effective introduction of negative Pd:

Negative Pd - increases Parcela B (tariff recomposition)

Positive Pd - reduces Parcela B (tariff discount)

The implication is counterintuitive: