Swatch Group (1K) | Reduce | Royal Pop pump but other headwinds weigh

Research evidence excerpt

Swatch Group (1K) | Reduce | Royal Pop pump but other headwinds weigh

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 26 June 2026

Company research

ESG profile ReduceSwatch Group

Switzerland | Luxury goods MCap: CHF10.8bn

Target Price: CHF180.00 (165.00) Change in TP: 9.1 % Bloomberg: UHR SW Reuters: UHR.S

Current Price: CHF206.20 Change in Sales: -0.9% 26E/none 27E Free float 77%

Up/downside: -12.7% Change in Adj EBIT: -25.0% 26E/none 27E Avg. daily volume (CHFm) 32.3

YTD abs performance 22.6% Market data: 25 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -25.3% 26E/none 27E

52-week high/low (CHF) 219.20/128.45

Royal Pop pump but other headwinds weigh Price performance

Why this report?

We believe Swatch brand's Royal Pop will be supportive for H1 results but a

mixture of currency headwinds, weakness in Middle East trading as well as

ongoing fragility in greater China will probably weigh and overall we cut our

full year estimates. While we nudge up our target price, we reiterate our

Reduce. While the Royal Pop is likely to be a commercial success, we believe

much of Swatch Group's brand portfolio is probably losing share even if the

luxury sector overall should be buoyed by AI-enabled wealth generation.

Key findings

Swatch Group is expected to report H1 results from 14 July.

We expect Royal Pop, Swatch brand's collaboration with Audemars Piguet , to

contribute c. CHF100m to revenues in H1 with a 35% operating margin. FY to 31/12 (CHF) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

However, while there are pockets of support -- notably North America, where the Sales 6,468 6,850 7,190

EBITDA adj. 810 1,107 1,284

company has increased prices -- the war in the Middle East, as well as still fragile EBIT adj. 385 677 854

trading in the greater China region, is likely to weigh. Net profit adj. 290 510 645