2QTD Gross Realizations: A Disappointing But Likely Somewhat Expected Update

Research evidence excerpt

2QTD Gross Realizations: A Disappointing But Likely Somewhat Expected Update

Asset Managers: Alternative Asset Managers

Blackstone

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC QUICK TAKE: COMPANY UPDATE

June 23, 2026

Price: $120.07 (06/23/2026) 2QTD Gross Realizations: A Disappointing But

Price Target: $133.00 Likely Somewhat Expected Update

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 57/100

Bill Katz THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

212 468 7802

Post 6/23 market close, BX released 2QTD gross realizations that missed our below-Street

bill.katz@tdsecurities.com

estimate. ~$500M in realized performance revenues and realized principal investment income

Robin Holby, CFA comprised almost entirely or realized performance revenues. Although somewhat expected,

646 562 1401 the update keeps alive negative revision risk for the sector. Expect the stock and sector to

robin.holby@tdsecurities.com

trade mixed on 6/24.

Bradley Hays

646 562 1487 2Q26TD (Through 6/23) Gross Realizations Below Model - At $500M, ~35% below our 1Q26-

bradley.hays@tdsecurities.com E and ~40% below consensus (Figure 1) though A) ~18%+ vs. 2Q25A and B) relatively durable

Sergio Ferreira despite macro uncertainty, including Operation Epic Fury (OEF), continued AI angst & higher

646 562 1465 rates expectations. Sequentially, QTD realizations fell ~26%. In speaking with management, we

sergio.ferreira@tdsecurities.com understand the realizations are heavily skewed toward PE.

Key Data Adjusting For Nominal "Gross Up Factor"Estimate ~6% 2Q26 Downside - If the quarter ended

Symbol NYSE: BX 6/23,we estimate the shortfall to our 2Q26E is $0.11 per share, or 8%, and $0.12 per share to

Market Cap $89.2B consensus, or ~9%. Most recently, the "gross up factor" (that is, actuals vs. intra-Q update)

ranges from 1.15x to 1.50x (Figure 2).