Monthly UK Retail Sales Review: May 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Monthly UK Retail Sales Review: May 2026

UK | General Retailers EquityJuneResearch21, 2026

In our Monthly UK Retail Sales Review, we summarise the full array of

industry-level sales data, and pick out some of the more interesting trends.

Specifically, we review May 2026 sales data from the ONS, Barclaycard,

BRC, and BDO, and contextualise the sector backdrop with relevant macro

charts, a valuation overview, and recent share price performances across

our coverage.

A very robust May result. After the weak April outturn seen across the board, industry-level

UK sales data for May looks to be very reassuring. All the major surveys saw a marked step-up

in May growth, including the ONS non-food (+7.2% vs April +2.5%), Barclaycard non-essential

(+0.9% vs -0.3%), the BDO (+4% vs -2%) and the BRC (+3.4% vs -3.4%).

We think weather and Easter phasing have distorted the data. We think an unusual

combination of weather and Easter timings has resulted in a volatile trading cadence. The early

Easter will have helped March, but been a headwind for April. And from a weather perspective,

the hot April 2025 presents a tough comparative, particularly given a wet April this year.

Meanwhile, the May 2025 comp will have been slower as seasonal sales were pulled into April,

and the May heatwave this year (potentially combined with some clearance after the slow

start) will have been a substantial tailwind. In all, we think these effects explain the volatility

through March (good), April (bad), and May (good).

Reports of UK Retail's demise look to have been overstated. Looking across the 3-month

period average, UK retail sales growth looks to have been largely in line with the preceding 6

months - slightly better per the ONS (+4.5% vs +3.4%), slightly worse per Barclaycard (+0.6%

vs +1.4%).