Oil markets Hormuz tracker: Flows recover, constraints remain

Research evidence excerpt

Oil markets Hormuz tracker: Flows recover, constraints remain

23 June 2026

Oil markets EquitiesGlobal & Commodities

Hormuz tracker: Flows recover, constraints remain

◆ Hormuz traffic improves post‑MoU; transits more than double Kim Fustier*

but capped by mines, lane closures and uncertainty Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

◆ Flows likely to remain volatile while headline risk stays high; +44 20 3359 2136

Iran retains leverage via permission and possible fees Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

◆ Gulf output is restarting quickly, but system recovery still ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

likely to take several months +44 20 7992 3302

Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

Headline risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Iran again declared the HSBC Bank plc sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

Strait “closed” on 20 June, yet observed crossings point to a directional improvement +44 207 9910569

since the US‑Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU). Amid the noise, we prioritise Evan Li*

physical data over headlines as a more reliable gauge of near-term conditions. We Head, Asia Energy Transition Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

conclude that activity has improved as Hormuz traffic moves from episodic “leakage” evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6619

to a more durable recovery; but it remains volatile and capacity-constrained, implying

that normalisation is likely to be uneven even if the broader de-escalation holds. Lilyanna Yang, CFA Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, Petrochems

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

High-frequency data show a clear pick-up, albeit with day-to-day volatility. Hormuz lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com