Asian FX Focus One battle after another

Research evidence excerpt

Asian FX Focus One battle after another

23 June 2026

Asian FX Focus CurrenciesEM Asia

One battle after another

◆ Oil prices are down, but USD support on the Fed’s slight hawkish

pivot is the latest headwind for Asian currencies Joey Chew

Head of Asia FX Research

◆ Differences from 2022: far fewer Fed hikes, JPY intervention, TheLimited,HongkongSingaporeand BranchShanghai Banking Corporation

RMB’s resilience, strong equities, tech upcycle, valuation joey.s.chew@hsbc.com.sg

+65 6658 5186

◆ We raised most USD-Asia FX forecasts into upward trajectories, Jingyang Chen

Asian FX Strategist

and moderated the decline we still expect for USD-RMB The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

jingyang.chen@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6558

The relief for Asian currencies from the drop in oil prices was shallow and quickly

overshadowed by market concerns of a more hawkish Fed (Chart 1). All Asian Paul Mackel

Global Head of FX Research

currencies have depreciated since the 17 June FOMC meeting (Chart 2). HSBC FX The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Strategy has shifted to a more positive USD view (see FX: Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes, paulmackel@hsbc.com

+852 2288 5523

22 June and FX forecast update: A new sheriff in town, 18 June). The USD’s

correlations with its fundamental drivers are normalising (Chart 3). Akshat Singla Associate

Bangalore

This note details our updated outlook for Asian currencies. We now see USD-Asia

on an upward path, except USD-RMB. But even for RMB, we think its strength

will be more notable against other (non-USD) currencies like the EUR (see

RMB: Post-conflict reality check, 16 June). There could be a temporary squeeze

higher in USD-RMB from positioning adjustments (Chart 4). Our year-end forecast is

now 6.72 (previous: 6.65).