UK PMIs (Jun) Blue June

Research evidence excerpt

UK PMIs (Jun) Blue June

23 June 2026

UK PMIs (Jun) EconomicsData Reactions-

Blue June United Kingdom

◆ UK PMIs disappointed in June, with the services reading dropping to a 41- Elizabeth Martins

month low of 48.7, and manufacturing easing back to 53.1 SeniorHSBC BankEconomist,plc UK

liz.martins@hsbc.com

◆ Meanwhile, the composite employment index was in negative territory, +44 20 7991 2170

pointing to headcount reduction, for the 21st consecutive month

◆ More positively, cost indices eased – and the good news around Iran and

energy prices has broadly continued since the survey was conducted

Facts

The UK headline services PMI fell from 49.3 to 48.7 in June – a 41-month low and a disappointment

compared with consensus expectations for a rise to 50.1.

Manufacturing, which has had a decent few months for both PMIs and real growth in the hard data, held

up better, but saw its headline index fall back from 53.9 to 53.1 (consensus: 53.5).

However, the survey compilers S&P Global were keen to stress that this strength was likely to be a

temporary boost from frontloading related to anticipation of disruption related to the Strait of Hormuz.

Delays in supplier delivery times also read as positive in the survey, providing a further artificial boost.

This took the composite PMI to a 14-month low of 49.4 (consensus: 50.5).

The employment indices eased back in services, manufacturing and composite (chart 2), with the latter

standing below 50 (indicating headcount reduction) for the 21st consecutive month.

All four price indices eased back in June, which is positive, but all remain elevated. Rising input costs were

linked to a number of factors, according to S&P Global, including higher prices for energy, chemicals,