Brazil Economics BCB Minutes: Not too cold, not too hot, not too clear

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Economics BCB Minutes: Not too cold, not too hot, not too clear

23 June 2026

Brazil Economics Economics

BCB Minutes: Not too cold, not too hot, not too clear Brazil

◆ We found the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) Minutes compatible with Daniel Lavarda

the communiqué, both in terms of its contents and in lack of clarity HeadResearchof Brazil Economics

Banco HSBC S.A.

◆ Today’s minutes are supportive of our view of a prolonged pause, with the daniel.lavarda@hsbc.com +55 11 2802 2640

Selic rate kept stable at 14.25% in August

◆ As market pricing goes, we regard today’s communication as roughly neutral;

external factors have been prevalent in shaping up the premium in local yields

Facts and implications

The minutes of the 17 June Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting came out earlier today. Overall,

we think the message in the minutes remains in line with the one in the communiqué released soon after

the meeting, with all its pros and cons:

◆ hawkish start: recognizes a substantive deterioration in the balance of risks for inflation, stronger

economic and above target headline and core inflation prints; followed by…

◆ dovish finish: the board uses unconventional paths for the Selic rate in their forecasts, which provides

reasons for the cut, despite the afore mentioned more adverse scenario for inflation.

In all, we found the minutes today compatible with our expectations of a long pause, following the 25bp cut

last week, but we also recognize that the lack of clarity and the apparent determination to avoid using a

forward guidance leaves the door open to other interpretations.

Amongst the changes in the text, we find particularly telling the explicit recognition of an “upside

asymmetry” in the balance of risks for inflation.