IMCD : IPPI May 2026: pricing +9.5% in May, underpinning 2Q upside potential

Research evidence excerpt

IMCD : IPPI May 2026: pricing +9.5% in May, underpinning 2Q upside potential

EQUITIES

CHEMICALS

IMCD OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR82.6  TARGET PRICE EUR120 (UPSIDE 45%)

IMCD ADR OUTPERFORMPRICE* USD48.1  TARGET PRICE USD70 (UPSIDE 46%)

FLASH NOTE

IPPI May 2026: pricing +9.5% in May, underpinning 2Q upside potential

23 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 11:56* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

David Symonds BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8496 david.symonds@uk.bnpparibas.com

IPPI background

We introduced our proprietary IMCD Product Price Index (IPPI) in January (full detail of the composition here IMCD:

Quantifying the China price pressure). With this dataset we track changes in price and quantity of Chinese exports of

products that could compete with IMCD’s portfolio, as a proxy for competitive pressure and pricing power.

Conclusions for May

The weighted average pricing index for May was +9.5% vs +4.6% in April and -4.1% pre-war, with Iran conflict impacts

contributing to another very strong inflationary month. May showed a majority of items increasing in price (62%) for the

first time since August 2022, vs. 43% in April and 27% pre-war. Weighted average export volume growth moderated

slightly to +17% YoY from +23.5% in April; so remains at a very elevated level.

We got a first look at the magnitude of a distributor 2Q from Brenntag last night, who pre-released a 50% step up in

EBITDA QoQ and a 20% beat vs consensus (9% beat vs our estimate). We think this is consistent with DD% pricing in

2Q, and whilst IMCD may see a slightly lesser benefit than Brenntag due to their specialty tilt, 2022 has shown that an

energy price spike in a benign demand environment can materially benefit the entire value chain. Our €171m EBITA